By: Kirk Jackisch, President, Iris Pricing Solutions
What was once speculative has now become an active and fast-evolving chapter in global trade. In April 2025, the United States announced a new tariff framework that included a baseline 10% import duty, alongside reciprocal tariffs targeting 57 countries. As of April 9, some of these tariffs have been paused for 90 days—with key exceptions. Most notably, in response to China’s 84% retaliatory tariffs, the U.S. has since escalated its duties on Chinese imports first to 125%, and most recently to 145%.
While some international partners, such as the EU, have temporarily suspended their retaliatory tariffs in response to these adjustments, market signals remain mixed. Moody’s and other institutions have flagged heightened recession risks, while media headlines warn that “the coast is still not clear.” In the midst of shifting announcements, business leaders must navigate pricing decisions with increasing agility and foresight.
This expanded piece builds on our Q1 2025 analysis of tariff uncertainty, offering updated guidance and strategic insights in response to recent developments—from shifting tariff timelines to mounting real-world business impacts.—and headlines are backing it up. In the span of just a few months, we’ve seen significant shifts in the global tariff landscape: retaliatory tariffs from Canada and Mexico in response to newly announced U.S. import duties, followed by escalations on auto imports. Recent headlines highlight proposed tariffs targeting the EU and the UK. In response, the European Union approved new retaliatory tariffs on key U.S. exports such as steel and agricultural products (NPR, April 2025). Meanwhile, China proposed an 84% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods, signaling a dramatic escalation in the trade conflict (The Guardian, April 2025).—including a proposed 84% tariff on certain U.S. goods. Other countries, including Vietnam and Japan, are also exploring their responses. Multinational manufacturers are already accelerating moves to shift production to Southeast Asia—including Vietnam and Malaysia—in an effort to bypass rising tariff exposure (The Guardian, April 2025).
What we’re seeing is not a localized pricing issue. We are witnessing the emergence of a global pricing and supply chain disruption cycle that requires immediate planning and structural response. Pricing leaders must now move from theoretical scenario planning to implementation.
What’s Changed Since Q1 2025
In early 2025, many organizations were preparing for tariffs as a possibility (see our previous article on tariffs). Now, they are a reality, with consequences rippling across multiple regions and industries. Stock market volatility and supply chain unpredictability are no longer abstract risks. Goldman Sachs, among other financial institutions, has warned of heightened recession risks if trade tensions continue to spiral (Business Insider, April 2025).—they are here, and they’re accelerating.
In this climate, pricing leaders must reevaluate what preparedness actually means. Having a plan isn’t enough. That plan must be adaptable, live-tested, and backed by real-time data.
A Renewed Case for a Global Pricing Playbook
It is no longer sufficient to manage pricing at a regional or product-line level. Organizations must develop global pricing playbooks that:
- Segment products based on tariff exposure (e.g., Tier 1 vs. Tier 2 products by geography).
- Define response strategies based on impact severity: absorb, share, or fully pass through.
- Differentiate between short-term vs. structural pricing changes.
- Include communication protocols across markets, customer segments, and contract cycles.
- Identify how margin preservation will be measured (dollar vs. percentage basis).
- Determine operational triggers: When does a price change take effect? Order date? Ship date? Contract renewal?
Practical Insights: What Pricing Leaders Should Be Doing Now
- Model new baselines. Companies need updated cost-to-serve models and real-time margin tracking by region and product.
- Coordinate cross-functionally. Align pricing, supply chain, finance, and commercial teams on real-time decision rights.
- Assess customer communication strategy. Customers need clarity. When prices change mid-contract or across staggered shipments, the risk of erosion in trust is high.
- Anticipate retaliation. In markets with retaliatory measures, plan how to adjust go-to-market strategies.
- Prepare for channel complexity. Distributors often resist surcharges more than OEMs. Tiered approaches may be necessary.
Pricing Through Policy Whiplash
With some tariff measures now being paused, others raised significantly, and country-by-country differences emerging in real time, organizations must treat pricing strategy as a dynamic capability. Waiting for certainty is no longer an option. Instead:
- Build pricing actions into a rolling review cadence (e.g., every 30–60 days).
- Develop modular playbooks that can adapt to different tariff outcomes—including increases, pauses, and reversals.
- Align legal, finance, and commercial teams around a shared escalation protocol.
- Communicate pricing rationale to customers with clarity and transparency, even in shifting environments.
This Is Bigger Than Big Business
While large corporations often dominate the tariff conversation, small businesses are facing existential threats. The recent escalation in tariffs has created significant financial strain for many small-to-medium-sized enterprises that depend on international sourcing.
Beth Benneke, CEO of Busy Baby in Minnesota, described the current climate as “the nail in the coffin” for her five-person company. With goods sitting in China that she can no longer afford to import under new tariff rates, she explained: “What would have cost me maybe $30,000 now is going to cost me almost $200,000. I don’t have that. And when I run out of inventory, I don’t have revenue. I can’t pay my employees or my loans.” – CNN
Jessica Bettencourt, CEO of Clems in Massachusetts, emphasized that the 90-day pause on tariffs offers little clarity: “It just kicks the can down the road. We’re still facing massive uncertainty in Q3 and Q4. For categories heavy in Chinese imports, we’re talking about significant price increases, and we don’t yet know how we’ll manage.” – CNN.
Both leaders stressed that reshoring production isn’t a viable solution on short notice. As Benneke pointed out, “Even if I found a U.S. factory, it would take 4–6 months to tool up and cost over $200,000. We don’t have that time or money.”
These perspectives illustrate how volatile policy changes create real-time disruptions in working capital, revenue continuity, and operational stability for smaller firms—many of whom lack the resources to adapt quickly. That’s why even amid the 90-day pause, the imperative for agile pricing strategies and scenario planning remains critical across the business spectrum. This isn’t just a Fortune 500 issue. Small and mid-sized businesses are particularly exposed, often lacking the infrastructure to quickly respond to global sourcing shifts or absorb sharp increases in import costs. Many SMEs are actively considering new sourcing strategies or passing through costs to remain viable (The Guardian, April 2025). SMBs, especially those relying on international suppliers or parts, are equally exposed but often less resourced to respond quickly. These businesses need clear, simplified frameworks and access to pricing expertise more than ever before.
Final Thought: Act, Don’t Watch
We are not in a “wait and see” moment—we are in a “respond and lead” moment. Amid shifting tariff timelines and policy variability, measured preparedness is a strategic imperative. Organizations that have embedded pricing agility into their commercial planning will be better positioned to navigate uncertainty with confidence, while those operating reactively may face margin erosion and customer friction. We are in a “respond and lead” moment. The global pricing environment has shifted dramatically, and businesses that adapt early will have the advantage.
At Iris Pricing Solutions, we are helping organizations across sectors develop and implement pricing playbooks that provide structure, resilience, and strategic clarity in this new tariff-driven world.
Contact us today to learn how we can support your pricing strategy in the face of continued global disruption.
